Promises, promises…

Following a hotel bombing in Islamabad, al-Qaeda issued a statement claiming responsibility for the attack & warning the Pakistani government, mired in instability, that attacks would continue until the government pulled away from Western influence. While terrorist organizations often make empty threats as a part of an overall strategy to inspire fear in the public eye, al-Qaeda seems to be making good on their promise. At a time when U.S. influence in the rest of the world is damaged by an imploding economy, a lame duck presidency, & a hotly contested presidential election, al-Qaeda is flexing its muscles. Influence & perception of power depend on the ability to act. Al-Qaeda has shown the ability to attack Pakistan with increasing regularity; leading to changes in the ISI & public perception of Western influence. All of these are bad signs for our continued efforts in the nation & the region as a whole.

Western influence on the decisions of the Pakistani government will continue to be hurt by pullouts of key diplomatic efforts, such as Britain's recall of government employees from the country. Even the United Nations, in a series of recalls reminiscent of the buildup to the genocide in Darfur, has been removing key personnel in recent days. By removing these vital diplomatic contacts, the western world will isolate Pakistan's leaders in a vacuum of opinion led by domestic interests, interests that will have a more favorable opinion to capitulation with terrorist organizations. Continued attacks have led to increased security in the country, a condition that may help al-Qaeda to turn the citizens of Pakistan against the increasingly fragile government. As the Pakistani government locks their country down in the face of terror attacks, the everyday lives of their citizens are disrupted not only by the attacks themselves, but by the state in an effort to stop the attacks. All of these facts combine to stir feelings of outrage against a government incapable of living up to the terms of the social contract. One need only look at the election of Hamas to governmental positions, or the provision of social services by Hezbollah in Lebanon to see the possible repercussions of a poor line of action in this region crucial to our security.

Public opinion, the key to success in Pakistan, can only be improved in a limited number of ways. Just a few years ago, when the American economy was more stable, the Bush administration tried the age old government solution of providing foreign assistance to the nation. While this type of solution can be very effective towards moving public opinion, the aid must be directed in a way that reaches the people directly, & in a way in which the people know the source of the aid. However, foreign aid may be among the first programs cut in light of our growing financial crisis. Unfortunately, the cost of providing this aid would pale in comparison to the overwhelming cost of going to war with a Pakistan acting in the interests of terror organizations.

As the war in Iraq draws to a close, another option will soon present itself. Military assistance to the Pakistani government, with Pakistani security as a goal, could help to slow the frequency of terrorist attacks. By providing security, the Pakistani government will see an increased favorable opinion of their rule. By helping to provide that security in a visible way, western nations can also help to foster favorable opinions in the Pakistani countryside. Military cooperation will also have the favorable outcome of cross communication between Pakistani military apparatuses & western forces, perhaps lessening the number of military strikes on civilians, a heavy weight against favorable opinions of western intervention in the region. Will we make a promise to help our allies in Pakistan as al-Qaeda makes good on their promise to destroy them? The outcome of the war on terror hangs in the balance.